Extracting Collective Probabilistic Forecasts from Web Games

Posted on 六月 10, 2006. Filed under: 相關論文, 準確性實證研究 |

Extracting Collective Probabilistic Forecasts from Web Games. David Pennock, C. Lee Giles, Finn Nielsen, and Steve Lawrence. 2001.

預測市場藉由浩瀚的網路世界吸引來自四方的參與者,他們各自懷抱著特殊的興趣、知識與技巧,準備展現特殊技能在預測比賽的競爭中脫穎而出。因此運用來自網路上的預測市場所收集到的資料進行預測將是不錯的選擇,並且在某些案例中,甚至比專家的論點更為可靠。這篇論文透過探討三個預測市場(Hollywood Stock Exchange, Foresight Exchange, Formula One Pick Six)傳達運用由網路所收集到的資料在預測上的重要性與可靠性。

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